Advisory

A cost model your investment committee can interrogate.

Levelised cost is the number every molecular-energy decision turns on, and it is the number most often quoted without its assumptions. MolecularX builds transparent LCOH, LCOA and LCOM models where every input is visible, every assumption is sourced, and the sensitivities that actually move the answer are identified.

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The problem

Two credible LCOH figures for the same project can differ by a factor of two, entirely through assumption choice — electricity price, load factor, stack replacement interval, discount rate, capacity assumptions. A single number without its model is not evidence.

What you end up with

A cost position you can defend, a clear view of what drives it, and a model that stays useful after the engagement ends.

What this includes

  • A levelised cost model — LCOH, LCOA, LCOM or levelised fuel cost — you can inspect and rerun
  • Capex, opex, energy, feedstock, transport, storage and conversion losses built up explicitly
  • Sensitivity analysis on electricity price, load factor, carbon price and capital cost
  • Scenario and uncertainty analysis, so the output is a range with drivers, not a single figure

How we approach it

01

Build it up, do not benchmark it down

The model is constructed from components and boundary conditions, not calibrated backwards to a number someone else published.

02

Expose every assumption

Each input is listed with its source and its confidence. If an assumption is a judgement, it is labelled as one.

03

Find the sensitivities that matter

In most cases a handful of variables dominate. Identifying them tells you where to spend effort reducing uncertainty.

04

Deliver the model, not just the result

You keep something you can rerun when your inputs change — because they will.

Questions

What is LCOH and why does it vary so much?

Levelised cost of hydrogen is the total lifetime cost of a production system divided by the hydrogen it delivers, discounted to present value. It varies because it is dominated by electricity price and load factor, and secondarily by capital cost and cost of capital — so different but individually reasonable assumptions produce very different answers.

Do you model derivatives as well as hydrogen?

Yes — LCOA for ammonia, LCOM for methanol, and levelised cost for synthetic and e-fuels, including the conversion losses and the transport and storage steps between production and delivery.

Can you review a model we already have?

Yes, and it is often the faster engagement. A review focuses on boundary conditions, assumption sourcing and the sensitivities that have not been tested.

Related

Where are you starting from?

Tell us what you provide, what you need and where you operate. The first conversation is about whether we can actually help, which is a faster question than it sounds.

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